宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for the commodities in the agricultural futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soy oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal (M) - Price Trend: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - Core Logic: The domestic soymeal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with prices under pressure. Oil mill operating rates are gradually recovering, increasing supply pressure. Downstream aquaculture losses have worsened, making feed enterprises cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak consumption. Spot basis is under pressure. The short - term fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is greatly affected by sentiment. With the changing prospects of Sino - US trade, soymeal futures prices are generally weak [5]. - Influencing Factors: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - Core Logic: India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% month - on - month, with demand shifting to soy oil, causing a recent slight correction in domestic palm oil futures and spot prices. Although Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first half of October is strong, factors such as inventory pressure, fluctuating trade relations between countries, and weak international oil prices are still dragging down palm oil futures prices. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will oscillate weakly [7]. - Influencing Factors: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soy Oil (2601) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [6]. - Influencing Factors: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soy oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].