向上驱动有限，中期偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black - sector was differentiated. Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore declined, while coking coal and coke rose. The demand for rebar recovered after the National Day but was lower than last year. Due to lower production, inventory is expected to be normally depleted. Hot - rolled coil has high production, stable demand, and the highest inventory level in the same period. If the current state continues, inventory pressure will increase. Overall, there is pressure on supply - demand due to high pig iron production. Although many steel mills issued price - support announcements, prices will be under pressure in the medium term if production is not effectively controlled. The "anti - involution" drive has cooled, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee may provide short - term support [2]. - The supply - demand situation is still weak. Steel inventory is high, and the supply - demand contradiction of coils may further intensify. Macro - drivers may provide short - term support but with limited amplitude. The supply - demand of raw materials is relatively stable. In general, there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but the height is limited, and it will maintain a weak operation in the medium term. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may further shrink [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In August 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 69790,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; the cumulative output was 579,070,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The monthly output of crude steel was 77,370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; the cumulative output was 671,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The monthly output of steel was 122,770,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; the cumulative output was 982,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the cumulative imports were 4,530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. Steel exports were 10,470,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the cumulative exports were 87,960,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [4]. Five - major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of October 17, 2025, the weekly production of rebar was 2,011,600 tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%; consumption was 2,197,500 tons, an increase of 665,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%; inventory was 6,410,500 tons, a decrease of 185,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. For wire rod, production was 846,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7%; consumption was 840,000 tons, an increase of 149,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%; inventory was 1,432,400 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 32%. For hot - rolled coil, production was 3,218,400 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; consumption was 3,155,500 tons, an increase of 205,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; inventory was 4,191,900 tons, an increase of 62,900 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 13%. For cold - rolled coil, production was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.8%; consumption was 902,600 tons, an increase of 101,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.21%; inventory was 1,834,500 tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.24%. For medium - thick plate, production was 1,618,700 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.69%; consumption was 1,654,300 tons, an increase of 117,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.76%; inventory was 1,953,300 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.89%. The total production of the five - major steel products was 8,569,500 tons, a decrease of 63,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.1%; total consumption was 8,750,000 tons, an increase of 1,240,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.34%; total inventory was 15,820,000 tons, a decrease of 184,600 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 24.34% [5]. Steel Production Profit - On October 16, 2025, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 84, with a change of 8; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 88, with a change of - 9; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 209, with a change of - 9; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 118, with a change of 8. In North China, rebar - blast furnace was 19, with a change of - 2; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 70, with a change of 18; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 154, with a change of 18; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 7, with a change of - 2. In Central China, rebar - blast furnace was 175, with a change of 0; rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 88, with a change of 5; rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 219, with a change of 4; hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 95, with a change of - 10 [20]. Steel Demand - Real Estate High - frequency Data: The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.7% [27]. - Cement and Concrete Demand: The cement delivery volume has improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level comparable to last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11% [30]. - Steel Exports: In September, the export volume increased month - on - month, was slightly higher than last year, and was at a high level in the same period [36]. Steel Inventory - Rebar Basis: The rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the 01 contract is at a relatively low level in recent years. After the delivery of the 10 - contract, the delivered goods may have a certain impact on the spot, but the overall impact is expected to be limited. Rebar production is lower than last year, and inventory is expected to be normally depleted, so the basis is expected to run stably [50]. - Hot - rolled Coil Basis: The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract runs stably. This week, hot - rolled coil inventory continued to rise and is at the highest level in the same period. Cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate inventories are also high. Against the background of high pig iron and hot - rolled coil production, inventory pressure may drive the basis to run weakly [54]. - Rebar Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of rebar ran at a low level this week with limited fluctuations [60]. - Hot - rolled Coil Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, and the spread may further move towards a reverse - arbitrage pattern [64]. - Spread between Hot - rolled Coil and Rebar: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may further shrink [2].