碳酸锂周报：去库+仓单大幅注销，锂价震荡上行-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance, with total inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks, strong demand, and increasing production. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate upward, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3%. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3] - Sino - US trade disputes resurfaced, global market risk appetite declined, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is almost certain [3] 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production was 22,765 tons, a week - on - week increase of 326 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.74%. Domestic smelting capacity expansion led to a significant increase in production [8] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production was 5,943 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 39.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%. Production release was limited [10] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production was 78,164 tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 68.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%. New capacity was under ramping up [13] 3.3 Demand Side - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000 units, a 1% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.236 million units, a 23% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 328,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase and an 11% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.775 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase [3] 3.4 Cost and Profit - As of October 17, the African SC 5% lithium ore was priced at $590/ton, unchanged from last week; the Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF price was $835/ton, a $10/ton increase from last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [4][47] - As of October 17, the lithium carbonate production cost was 67,893 yuan/ton, a 140 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 5,887 yuan/ton, a 530 - yuan increase [4][49] - As of October 17, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 68,541 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 77 - yuan increase [52] - As of October 17, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,177 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the industry loss was 1,008 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan/ton decrease [54] 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons, a 2,144 - ton decrease from last week, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 30,686 tons, a 11,983 - ton decrease from last week [32] - As of October 17, the total lithium iron phosphate inventory was 43,978 tons, a 6,200 - ton decrease from last week [35] 3.6 Market Price - As of October 17, the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price was 74,500 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase from last week; the LC2511 contract closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, a 4% increase from last week [5][6] - Various lithium - related products showed different price changes, with some rising and some falling [5] 3.7 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain in a tight balance, with strong terminal demand, which strongly supports the price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate upward [4]