美国：科技驱动下的“无就业增长”经济初探

Economic Growth and Technology - The current U.S. economic growth is increasingly driven by technology investments, particularly in AI, with GDP growth potentially remaining relatively high[5] - AI-related capital expenditures have surged, accounting for approximately 34% of total private investment and contributing 0.6% to GDP, the highest level since the 2000 tech boom[11] - Construction spending related to AI has shown significant growth, with annualized spending on data centers reaching about $41 billion, representing 0.14% of GDP[14] Employment Trends - The U.S. is experiencing a "no job growth" phenomenon, where employment growth lags behind economic growth, indicating a structural issue in the labor market[29] - Employment risks have exceeded expectations, with recent data suggesting a near-recession state, as non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August[29] - Historical comparisons indicate that "no job growth" may become a norm, similar to past economic cycles in 1991, 2001, and 2010[34] Productivity and Inflation - Labor productivity has improved slightly, with a nearly 6% increase since the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022, but this has not translated into job growth[42] - Insufficient wage growth is expected to limit inflationary pressures, with unit labor costs rising only about 2%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's inflation target[45] Market Dynamics - Technology stocks have significantly outperformed the broader market, with major AI companies' market capitalization rising from 15% to nearly 30% of the S&P 500[48] - Current indicators suggest that the AI sector remains in an expansion phase, but there are signs of declining free cash flow among tech giants, indicating potential structural risks[53] Policy Implications - The macroeconomic environment will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the tech cycle, with ongoing policy support potentially benefiting the AI narrative[67] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions, as the sustainability of the AI narrative depends on overall economic performance[56]