中辉有色观点-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Short - term watch, long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish, short - term short positions and gradually take profits, long - term short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term safe - haven demand for gold has declined but still exists. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, with the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver has high short - term volatility due to potential US taxation and low London inventory. Long - term, global policy will stimulate demand and there will be a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is in high - level consolidation in the short term, with supply expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. In the long term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand [1]. - Zinc is under pressure and fluctuating weakly in the short term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the long term [1]. - Lead prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term due to planned restarts of recycling plants and uncertain downstream consumption [1]. - Tin prices are under short - term pressure due to reduced overseas disturbances and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term, with insufficient cost support from alumina but some support from terminal consumption [1]. - Nickel prices are weak, with sufficient domestic supply and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is cautiously bearish due to increased industry开工率 and potential negative impacts on demand [1]. - Polysilicon is bullish as there are expectations of production capacity regulation and potential production cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, with supply - demand balance in the short term, continuous inventory reduction, and strong terminal demand [1] 3. Summaries by Catalog Gold and Silver - 行情回顾: G2 tension eases, gold and silver prices adjust. Gold prices are strong due to US government shutdown, ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, and repeated Middle - East problems [2]. - 基本逻辑: Sino - US relations ease; Ray Dalio emphasizes a bullish stance on gold; the Middle - East issue is repeated. Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - 策略推荐: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Domestic gold has strong support at 950. Silver has high speculative sentiment, with short - term adjustments. Short - term investors should watch, while long - term investors can hold [4]. Copper - 行情回顾: Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range [6]. - 产业逻辑: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. High copper prices suppress demand, and domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [6]. - 策略推荐: Copper is in high - level consolidation, but the long - term trend is unchanged. Hold previous long positions with trailing stops, and new long positions should enter on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [83000, 88000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [10000, 11000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - 行情回顾: Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating weakly [10]. - 产业逻辑: The global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the "Silver October" peak season is lackluster [10]. - 策略推荐: Short - term short positions can gradually take profits. Wait for rebounds to re - enter short positions. In the long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Shanghai zinc focuses on [21600, 22000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2900, 3000] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - 行情回顾: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina prices are stabilizing at a low level [13]. - 产业逻辑: There are still expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high operating capacity, and inventory is decreasing. The alumina market is in surplus in the short term [14]. - 策略推荐: Short - term, buy Shanghai aluminum on dips. Pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] [15]. Nickel - 行情回顾: Nickel prices rebound and then decline, and stainless steel prices rebound slightly [17]. - 产业逻辑: Overseas disturbances in nickel ore supply are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain [18]. - 策略推荐: Temporarily watch nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - 行情回顾: The main contract LC2511 opens high and goes high, but the gains narrow at the end [21]. - 产业逻辑: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Demand is strong, and supply has accident rumors. Terminal demand is strong, supporting prices [22]. - 策略推荐: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range [75300 - 77800] [23]