风险偏好回升，铜价企稳

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - Last week, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. The main reasons were that China and the US were expected to restart a new round of negotiations, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The dovish officials of the Federal Reserve still actively predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year. China's export growth rate rebounded in September, and stronger fiscal policies would support foreign trade and employment. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of the mining end this year was less than 1%, and the output growth of the global smelting end was very limited. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained. With the slowdown of macro - disturbances and the strong support of the cost end, it was expected that the copper prices would turn to a volatile upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 10th to October 17th, LME copper rose from $10,374/ton to $10,607/ton, an increase of 2.25%; COMEX copper rose from 484.5 cents/pound to 499.75 cents/pound, an increase of 3.15%; SHFE copper fell from 85,910 yuan/ton to 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%; international copper remained unchanged at 73,880 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 7.96. The LME spot premium/discount changed from -$31.19/ton to -$16.83/ton, a change of -46.04%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount increased from 20 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 17th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 692,528 tons, a total increase of 2.35%. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons (-1.56%), COMEX inventory increased by 6,056 short tons (1.78%), SHFE inventory increased by 550 tons (0.50%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 11,500 tons (13.07%) [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price trend reasons: The copper prices fluctuated in a range last week. The US government shutdown led to the postponement of important economic data, which might make the Fed's future policy path lose guidance. The market had fully priced in a small interest rate cut in October. China and the US agreed to conduct a new round of consultations as soon as possible. China's export growth rate rebounded, and the policy tone of stable growth and anti - involution was clear, which would boost the macro - expectation. Fundamentally, after the serious accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, the interference rate of major global mines continued to rise, the inventory in non - US regions was low, the domestic refined copper output declined, and the near - month futures market maintained a flat - water structure [2][7]. - Macro - aspect: China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fed's dovish officials advocated interest rate cuts. The latest Fed's Beige Book showed that the Trump administration's tariff increase was pushing up inflation, and important economic data were missing during the government shutdown. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% but emphasized that the US tariff increase and trade protectionism were dragging down the growth. China's export in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export of high - tech products and green products showed good growth [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: After the accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, and some mines such as Panama's copper mine and TECK also had production problems. It was expected that the third - quarter reports of mainstream mining enterprises would continue to lower the production guidance. In terms of refined copper, due to the shortage of raw materials, the domestic smelting output was expected to decline slightly from October to November. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained [9]. Industry News - Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco proposed to sell copper to its European customers at a record - high premium of $325/ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. European largest copper smelting company Aurubis would also charge a record - high premium of $315/ton for refined copper from its European customers next year, due to concerns about copper supply shortage next year [11]. - Rio Tinto's copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 204,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11%. The copper production of its Kennecott project in the US decreased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter due to engineering restrictions and maintenance. The copper production of its Escondida copper mine in Chile increased year - on - year, with the concentrate output increasing slightly and the refined copper output increasing mainly due to the release of project capacity. The copper production of its OT copper mine in Mongolia increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, setting a new record high [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [14][17][21].