铁合金周报：基本面无明显驱动，观望为宜-20251020

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For silicon manganese, the supply is at a high level in the short - term, and it will gradually enter the supply off - season in mid - to - late October. After the new round of restocking demand from downstream steel procurement is released, it is more difficult to reduce the inventory in production areas. The cost side provides some support, but the upward driving force is limited. It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract is [5680, 5800] [4][5]. - For silicon iron, both supply and demand are weakening, the inventory continues to increase, and the number of warehouse receipts maintains a downward trend. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silicon iron and short on manganese silicon. The reference range for the main contract is [5300, 5600] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - Supply: As of October 17, the national silicon manganese production was 20.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 million tons; the operating rate was 43.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. The operating rate in Yunnan continued to decline to 81.79%, while the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [4][10]. - Demand: The molten iron production remained above 2.4 million tons, and the rebar production continued to decline. The steel procurement price - pressing sentiment remained strong. The first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill was lower than market expectations. HeSteel's first - round inquiry price for silicon manganese in October was 5750 yuan/ton, and the latest inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous round; the procurement quantity was 16,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous round but an increase of 4500 tons compared with the same period last year [4][16]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. As of September 18, the total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 47,900, a decrease of 6100 from last Friday; the total valid forecasts were 3300, an increase of 3300 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was about 256,000 tons, maintaining a downward trend [4]. - Cost and Profit: The port manganese ore prices were weak this week, with small declines in both high - and low - grade prices. The total shipment volume of the three major countries was 439,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 337,600 tons; the arrival volume was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 308,900 tons. After the holiday, the port clearance volume increased rapidly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5818 yuan/ton and 6431 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 138 yuan/ton and - 781 yuan/ton respectively [4][23]. Silicon Iron - Supply: As of October 17, the weekly silicon iron production was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 tons; the operating rate was 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. Although the national production and operating rate decreased, there were still individual factory restarts in Ningxia, and the daily output remained at a high level in the same period [46][51]. - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products was 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 182 tons. The steel procurement process in October accelerated, and the market price - pressing sentiment was still strong. HeSteel's final bid price for silicon iron in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from September; the procurement quantity was 2956 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from September but an increase of 920 tons compared with the same period last year. In September, the magnesium ingot production was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3300 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 0.38%. From January to August, the cumulative silicon iron export volume was 2.71 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 6.5% [46][57][60]. - Inventory: The total enterprise inventory was 69,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3100 tons. As of October 17, the total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 12,200, a decrease of 2800 from last Friday; the total delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from last Friday [46]. - Cost and Profit: Recently, the semi - coke market was stable. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5625 yuan/ton and 5522 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 445 yuan/ton and - 392 yuan/ton respectively [47][65].