沪铜周报：沪铜周报中美关税扰动，铜高位调整-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid Sino-US tariff disruptions, copper prices are undergoing a high-level adjustment. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the Sino-US game and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand [6][7][84] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that Sino-US tariff disruptions lead to a high-level adjustment of copper prices. It is advised to set trailing stops for long positions, and copper is still promising in the long run. The operation strategy is to hold long positions cautiously, avoid blind chasing, and set trailing stops. New long positions should wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback. Production enterprises can consider selling hedges at high prices (around 86,000 - 87,000), while processing enterprises should wait for price pullbacks to buy hedges [6][7][84] Macroeconomic Analysis - Sino-US Trade Tensions: Trump's tariff threats show a "TACO" pattern. China has implemented countermeasures such as rare earth export controls, special port fees on US-related ships, anti-monopoly investigations, and adding some US enterprises to the unreliable entity list. The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly, and the market should be wary of further market fluctuations caused by Trump's inconsistent stance. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that if China stops strict rare earth export controls, the US may extend the three-month exemption period for additional tariffs on China [12][15][84] - Federal Reserve's Stance: Fed Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance, hinting at an early end to balance sheet reduction, which strengthened market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October. However, there are differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts [18] - China's Macroeconomic Data: In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, CPI decline narrowed, PPI decline also narrowed, and export data exceeded expectations. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year [21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Copper Concentrate: Disruptions in major copper mines such as Indonesia's Grasbreg, Congo's Kamoa-Kakula, and Chile's El Teniente have tightened global copper supply. In 2025, the output of global mainstream copper mining enterprises is expected to be revised down to 1.22 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.18%. The import of copper concentrate increased in August, and the port inventory increased slightly. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [47] - Scrap Copper: Supply is tight due to restrictions on European high-quality scrap copper exports, Sino-US tariff frictions, and domestic policy adjustments. The refined-scrap copper price spread has narrowed [52] - Refined Copper: In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased significantly. In October, due to smelter maintenance, production is expected to continue to decline. Overseas, smelters are facing a survival crisis due to low TC/RCs. The import of refined copper showed mixed trends [57] - Demand Side - Downstream Enterprises: High copper prices have suppressed demand, and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and making purchases only for essential needs. However, the operating rates of some downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in September [63] - End-User Industries: Power and new energy vehicle sectors show strong demand. In the first eight months, power grid investment increased, and new photovoltaic installations were prominent. In September, automobile production and sales reached record highs. The home appliance industry is expected to have a front-loaded strong performance followed by a weaker second half, and the real estate market is still at the bottom [69] Summary and Outlook - In the short term, due to Sino-US tariff disruptions and profit-taking by long positions, copper prices have adjusted at a high level. It is recommended to set trailing stops for existing long positions and wait for price pullbacks to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 80,000 - 82,000. Unless Sino-US relations deteriorate rapidly, the probability of a deep adjustment in copper prices is low. In the long term, copper is favored as a strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, along with tight copper concentrate supply and surging green copper demand. The price range for Shanghai copper is expected to be between 80,000 and 88,000, and for LME copper, between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton [7][84]