国新国证期货早报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on October 17, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 3.04% to 12688.94 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 3.36% to 2935.37 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1938.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4514.23, down 104.19 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1700.3, up 28.2. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable. Due to rising raw - material prices and environmental protection inspections, coke supply slightly shrank, while demand from steel mills was strong [3][5]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 1194.0 yuan, up 16.6. The prices of some coking coal varieties changed. Supply was affected by production at coal mines, and demand from downstream enterprises was mainly for rigid replenishment [4][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as reduced imports from Pakistan and increased European exports, the US sugar market declined. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rose slightly at night due to short - covering. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September increased by 10.76% year - on - year to 3.14 million tons [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly. As of October 17, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber decreased. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises recovered [6]. 2.4. Palm Oil - The palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated at night. Although the export situation in Malaysia was better than expected and there were expectations of export control in Indonesia, the price lacked upward momentum [7]. 2.5. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose. The US soybean harvest was at its peak, and the export expectation to China decreased. Domestically, the soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybean meal was abundant, and the futures market lacked upward drivers [8]. 2.6. Live Hogs - Live hog futures weakened. The market was in a stage of over - supply, and consumption was in the off - season, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [9]. 2.7. Shanghai Copper - With a clear contraction in global copper mine supply, ongoing domestic smelter maintenance, and increasing macro - economic easing expectations, copper prices were expected to be supported. The demand was likely to be released when prices declined, and the copper market was likely to be oscillating strongly [9]. 2.8. Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 13425 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased, and the short - fiber price declined. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang accelerated [9]. 2.9. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2601 main contract declined slightly. The supply was relatively loose, and the price was in an oscillating trend [10]. 2.10. Asphalt - The asphalt 2601 main contract declined. The capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the demand showed no obvious peak - season characteristics, with prices expected to oscillate [10][11]. 2.11. Logs - The log futures price rebounded near the 800 mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the market was gradually destocking [11]. 2.12. Steel - Steel mills in Guangdong were in a state of serious loss. Steel mills issued price - limit sales notices, which were expected to stabilize market confidence and prices [11]. 2.13. Alumina - The port inventory of bauxite decreased, and the price was firm. Alumina supply might contract due to profit losses of smelters, while demand was stable [12]. 2.14. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was boosted by the macro - economic situation and the peak - season effect [12].