煤焦：盘面震荡运行，关注宏观预期变化

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily affected by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Performance - Last week, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, with coking coal having a larger increase. The night session on Friday continued the strong trend. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price hikes [2] Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal was 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight inventory increase, but the current inventory level at mines is low due to downstream pre - holiday restocking [2] - The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising monthly. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons [2] - Demand Side - Last week, the profitability of coke enterprises shrank, which supported their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 74% [2] - The inventory pressure of downstream steel products still exists, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Affected by rising raw material prices and falling finished product prices, steel mills' profits were in the red. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate of steel mills was about 55% [2]