中辉期货：中辉黑色观点-20251020

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the rating is "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - For iron ore, it is "Short-term Participation" [1] - For coke and coking coal, both are "Cautiously Bullish" [1] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they are "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views - Steel products: Negative factors have been gradually released, and there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar shows normal seasonal characteristics but with weak downstream demand. Hot-rolled coil has an increasing inventory problem [3][4][5] - Iron ore: Supply has a short-term reduction, and the ore price remains firm. The short-term price will fluctuate, and one should pay attention to steel mill production cuts [7][8] - Coke: It fluctuates within a range following coking coal, with relatively balanced supply and demand [10][12] - Coking coal: The spot market is strong, and it will maintain range-bound operation in the medium term, with a possible short-term rebound [14][15] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The upward driving force is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see [17][19][20] Summaries by Variety Steel Products Rebar - Variety View: Rebar's apparent demand is rising normally, production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is falling, showing seasonal characteristics. However, the apparent consumption is still lower than last year, with weak downstream demand and high overall supply [4] - Market Operation Suggestion: The recent decline in the futures market reflects the loose supply-demand situation. After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound [5] Hot-rolled Coil - Variety View: The apparent demand is rising, production is slightly decreasing, but inventory is increasing, exceeding seasonal performance [4] - Market Operation Suggestion: With high hot metal production and better production profit than rebar, the inventory problem may worsen, and its performance may be relatively weak [5] Iron Ore - Variety View: Hot metal production is slightly decreasing, steel mills are reducing inventory, and port inventory is increasing significantly. However, there is a risk of a decline in overseas ore arrivals. The static fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished product inventory pressure is emerging, and concerns about industrial negative feedback are increasing. Steel mill profits are compressed, and production enthusiasm is decreasing [8] - Market Operation Suggestion: Short-term participation [9] Coke - Variety View: Coke enterprise profits are relatively stable recently, and production is stable. With high hot metal production, raw material demand is good. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to fluctuate within a range [12] - Market Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [13] Coking Coal - Variety View: Coal mine production has recovered to the same level as last year, and imports remain high. Supply is expected to improve further. With high hot metal production, raw material demand is guaranteed. Short-term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound, with medium-term range-bound operation [15] - Market Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [16] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - Variety View: The supply in the production area remains at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand from downstream steel procurement is released, it is more difficult to reduce inventory in the production area [19] - Market Operation Suggestion: In the short term, coal prices are strong, and manganese ore prices have not significantly declined. The cost side provides some support, but the upward driving force is limited. It is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [20] Ferrosilicon - Variety View: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the situation of re-entry into the warehouse after cancellation [19] - Market Operation Suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate within a range following coal prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]