Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The mid - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may shift to weak oscillations [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic but extremely high short - term volatility risks, so it is advisable to reduce positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends and trading strategies, such as copper and aluminum showing different price characteristics and trading suggestions [4][5]. - Steel products' market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and trade relations, with a complex trend [13]. - The shipping market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the future trend depends on factors such as the implementation of price increases and geopolitical situations [19]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading strategies, such as fuel oil and asphalt [20][21]. - Agricultural products' market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade relations, and different products show different trends and trading suggestions, such as soybeans and oils [35][36]. - The financial market, including stock indexes and bonds, is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, economic data, and trade relations, and the market trends are complex [47][48]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices continued to decline. The Brent December contract fell 1.21%. The mid - term trend is under pressure due to increased surplus forecasts and geopolitical easing, but short - term downward momentum is weakening [2]. - Precious Metals: On Friday, precious metals finally adjusted. Gold prices dropped by $200, and silver was more volatile. The long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term volatility is high [3]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, LME copper recovered intraday losses, showing resilience in low - level buying interest. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Shanghai copper shows strong resilience at the 84,000 yuan level [4]. - Aluminum: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has returned to seasonal destocking, and the short - term trend is to test the previous high resistance [5]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the industry inventory is high, and it mainly follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - Alumina: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory has increased significantly, and the supply surplus is obvious. The price is running weakly [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has low inventory supporting high spot premiums, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The short - term trend is to be under pressure at the $3,080/ton level [8]. - Lead: LME lead has a 0 - 3 - month discount of $41.85/ton. The domestic short - term inventory is low, but the rebound space of Shanghai lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/ton [9]. - Tin: Last Friday, LME tin's short - term decline reached below $34,500, and it closed above $35,000. Shanghai tin followed the decline. The inventory decreased last week, and short - term support is at 275,000 yuan [10]. Industrial Products - Polysilicon: The market is advancing in line with photovoltaic capacity control policies, but the policy implementation rhythm is uncertain. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if production cuts are not realized [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The Xinjiang start - up rate has reached a new high this year, and the downstream demand is stable. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate [12]. - Steel Products (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil): On Friday night, steel prices rebounded. The demand for thread has increased, and the production has decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [13]. - Iron Ore: Last week, the iron ore futures price weakened. The supply has increased, and the demand may face pressure in the future. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - Coke: The price is oscillating strongly. The second round of price increases has started. The inventory is decreasing slightly, and the price may be prone to rise [15]. - Coking Coal: The price is oscillating strongly. The production has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price may be prone to rise [16]. - Manganese Silicon: The price is oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [17]. - Silicon Iron: The price is oscillating. The demand is fair, and the supply is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The geopolitical situation is still unstable, and the Red Sea resumption of navigation is uncertain. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the overall trend is expected to oscillate [19]. Energy - Chemical - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil has tightened, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase. The low - sulfur market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention can be paid to short - selling high - sulfur cracking spreads and widening high - low sulfur spreads [20]. - Asphalt: The current supply - demand is in a tight balance, but there is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation at the end of 2025 [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The US propane export has decreased, and the inventory situation is mixed. The demand is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not increased significantly [22]. - Urea: The main contract is oscillating at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to be weak [23]. - Methanol: The import supply may be affected by sanctions, and the inventory situation needs attention [24]. - Pure Benzene: The price has declined due to the fall in oil prices. The current fundamentals are okay, but the medium - term trend depends on oil prices and the external market [25]. - Styrene: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand is under pressure due to trade conflicts [26]. - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand follow - up is limited, so the price support is weak [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC may oscillate weakly, and caustic soda needs to pay attention to the inventory and demand situation [28]. - PX & PTA: The supply of PX is temporarily shrinking, and the supply of PTA is expected to increase. The demand is expected to turn weak, and the prices are expected to be weak [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation expectation has weakened. The short - term trend depends on the raw material market [30]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The sales of new - season US soybeans are slow, and the domestic supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate downward if the trade relationship does not improve [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The price of US soybeans needs to be tested under export pressure. The oil - meal price difference is widening, and the oil market is more resilient. Palm oil has production reduction expectations in the fourth quarter, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and the supply is limited in the short term. But the arrival of Australian rapeseed may relieve the supply pressure [37]. - Soybean No. 1: The domestic soybean futures price is oscillating after a rebound. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is widening [38]. - Corn: The Northeast corn price has rebounded slightly, but the supply is expected to be abundant in the future, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - Hogs: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak. The sow inventory is expected to be reduced, and the mid - term price may remain low [40]. - Eggs: The futures price is under pressure, and the spot price has started to decline. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium term [41]. - Cotton: US cotton has rebounded slightly, and the demand may be weak. The domestic new cotton cost is around 14,000 yuan, and the demand is general [42]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [43]. - Apples: The futures price is oscillating. The new - season cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, and the price is under pressure [44]. - Timber: The futures price is oscillating. The domestic supply may remain low, and the demand is average in the peak season [45]. - Pulp: The price has rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. Attention should be paid to the port inventory [46]. Financial - Stock Index: The previous trading day, the stock market declined, and the futures index also fell. The market is affected by factors such as US bank credit problems, geopolitical situations, and Sino - US economic and trade relations. The market style may rotate [47]. - Treasury Bonds: The futures price has risen. The domestic interest rate may oscillate widely at a high level, and the bond market is entering a repair stage [48].
综合晨报-20251020
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-20 03:21