尿素早评：关键还是在出口-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Recently, urea prices have been oscillating at a low level, and the spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, urea is currently at a low valuation, and further short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1602.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.12%) from October 16 - UR05 closed at 1672.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 16 - UR09 closed at 1705.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan (0.06%) from October 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 112.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 3.00 yuan from October 16 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 70.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan from October 16 [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1604 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1608 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1591 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1602 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1600 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 313,746 lots [1]