集运日报：SCFI大幅上涨，但月底运价仍小幅下行，盘面宽幅震荡，不建议加仓，设置好止损。-20251020

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SCFI has risen significantly, but the freight rates at the end of October still declined slightly. The futures market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with light positions or observe. The core issue is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [2]. - On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the European route was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the US - West route was 11936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2]. - On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the European route was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the US - West route was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line; the service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2 [2]. - China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52; the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9; the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. The core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process [3]. Futures Market - On October 17, the main contract 2512 closed at 1654.7, down 0.5%, with a trading volume of 2.98 million lots and an open interest of 2.57 million lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to observe temporarily or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Other Information - The shipping companies continue to announce price increases for November freight rates, which support the futures market, but the freight rates at the end of October still decline slightly [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, and the margin is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].