纸浆数据日报-20251020

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Current paper product demand remains stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26 - year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5152, 4856, and 5214 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.35%, - 0.91%, and - 0.50%, and week - on - week changes of 0.94%, 1.42%, and 1.32% [6] - The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5000, and 4250 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 0%, 0%, and 0%, and week - on - week changes of - 0.36%, - 0.99%, and 0% [6] Outer - market Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese (unclear name), and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.78%, 3.92%, and 0% [6] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.75%, 3.87%, and 0% [6] Supply - side Data - In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - On October 16, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 23.4 tons [6] Inventory Data - On October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 tons [6] Demand - side Data - In October 2025, the production of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard was 20.3, 7.9, 28.08, and 34.5 tons respectively [6] Valuation Data - On October 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144, and the Silver Star basis was 644, with quantile levels of 0.866 and 0.878 respectively [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with quantile levels of 0.285 and 0.555 respectively [6]