本周热点前瞻2025-10-20

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week (October 20 - 24, 2025), and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. It also suggests paying attention to factors such as domestic macro - policies, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and the negotiation on ending the US government shutdown [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - A Republican temporary appropriation bill aiming to fund the federal government until the end of November failed in the Senate, and US government economic data may be delayed due to the government shutdown [2]. - On October 20, the People's Bank of China will announce the October 2025 LPR, with expectations of no change from the previous values; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September's national economic performance, releasing macro - economic data; the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20 - 23; the US will release September's non - farm payroll report and retail sales data; on October 24, the US will release September's CPI data [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview October 20 - China's October LPR: Expected 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.50%, unchanged from the previous values, with a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [4]. - National Bureau of Statistics' report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities: Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [5]. - Press conference on September's national economic performance: Expected 1 - 9 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment at 0.1% (0.5% in 1 - 8 months), September's year - on - year growth of industrial added value at 5.0% (5.2% previously), September's year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods at 3.0% (3.4% previously), Q3 GDP year - on - year growth at 4.8% (5.2% in Q2), and Q3 GDP quarter - on - quarter growth at 0.8% (1.1% in Q2). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress commodity and stock index futures and benefit treasury bond futures [8]. - US September non - farm payroll report: Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs at 50,000 (22,000 previously), unemployment rate at 4.3% (unchanged), and average hourly wage annual rate at 3.7% (unchanged). Higher new non - farm jobs may slightly suppress gold and silver futures and benefit other industrial product futures [9]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rate at 0.4% (0.6% previously), core retail sales monthly rate at 0.3% (0.7% previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit gold and silver futures and suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: The main agendas include the Politburo reporting work and discussing suggestions for the 15th Five - Year Plan, and analyzing the current economic situation and deploying the second - half economic work [11]. October 21 - Fed's payment innovation conference: Will discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization [12]. October 22 - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 17: A continued decline may benefit crude oil and related futures prices [13]. October 23 - Eurozone's preliminary October consumer confidence index: Expected at - 12.7 (- 12.9 previously) [14]. - US September existing home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 4.08 million (4 million previously). Higher - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit non - ferrous metals futures and suppress gold and silver futures [15]. October 24 - National Bureau of Statistics' report on market prices of important production materials in mid - October: Will cover 9 categories and 50 products [16]. - Eurozone's preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 49.5 (49.8 previously) [17]. - US September CPI: Expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth at 2.9% (unchanged), seasonally - adjusted CPI month - on - month growth at 0.4% (unchanged), unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth at 3.1% (unchanged), and unadjusted core CPI month - on - month growth at 0.3% (unchanged). Unchanged data may strengthen the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October and December [18]. - US preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 52 (unchanged) [19]. - US September new home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 710,000 (800,000 previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress non - ferrous metals futures and benefit gold and silver futures [20].