Soochow Securities·2025-10-20 03:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending investment in JianTou Energy and other undervalued thermal power assets, as well as opportunities in charging stations and photovoltaic sectors [1]. Core Insights - JianTou Energy's Q3 2025 performance is highlighted, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.583 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 232%. The Q3 net profit alone is expected to be around 686 million yuan, a staggering increase of 566% year-on-year [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide [4]. - The NDRC has also released a draft for implementing minimum renewable energy consumption targets, which will enhance the share of renewable energy in electricity consumption through various means [4]. Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Prices: In August 2025, the average grid purchase price decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 1.3% month-on-month, averaging 388 yuan/MWh [39]. - Coal Prices: As of October 17, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 748 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.95% but a week-on-week increase of 39 yuan/ton [44][45]. - Water Conditions: The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 170.55 meters as of October 17, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 48.15% and 102.78% year-on-year, respectively [53]. - Electricity Consumption: From January to July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [14]. - Power Generation: The cumulative power generation from January to July 2025 was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Thermal and hydropower generation saw declines of 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively [22]. - Installed Capacity: As of the first half of 2025, new installed capacity for thermal power was 25.78 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [47]. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Focus on undervalued thermal power investments, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with recommendations for JianTou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power [4]. - Charging Station Equipment: Suggested investments in companies like Teruid and Shenghong Co., Ltd. [4]. - Photovoltaic and Charging Station Assets: Potential for value reassessment in photovoltaic and charging station assets due to market dynamics [4]. - Green Energy: Emphasis on the recovery of asset quality and growth potential in green energy, with recommendations for Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and others [4]. - Hydropower: Highlighting the low cost and strong cash flow of hydropower, with recommendations for Changjiang Power [4]. - Nuclear Power: Continued growth in nuclear power with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4].