塑料数据周报（PP、PE）-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Supply: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - Demand: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - Inventory: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - Profit: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - Macro Policy: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - Demand: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - Profit: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - Macro Policy: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - Prices: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - Production: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - Start - up Rates: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - Inventory: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - Downstream Start - up Rates: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - Cost and Profit: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]