液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：丙弱丁强走势分化，内盘PG估值向上修复-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence between weak propane and strong butane, with the valuation of domestic PG rising. Although the CP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the month, the continuous increase in upstream crude oil production and the oversupply in the market led to a weak performance of chemical products. However, the PG valuation has been repaired this week. Overall, there are few short - term positive factors for PG, and its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,220 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.12%, a weekly increase of 3.69%, a monthly decline of 0.59%, and an annual decline of 9.48% [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis - Supply: It is bearish. Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 550,100 tons (a 1.27% increase). The commercial volume of domestic gas was 221,700 tons (a 1.79% increase), industrial gas was 211,700 tons (a 0.14% decrease), and ether - after C4 was 180,400 tons (a 0.73% increase). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 560,000 tons (no change). Some manufacturers in South China and North China increased the commercial volume [4] - Demand: It is neutral. In October, the combustion demand for LPG is in the off - season. In the deep - processing of C4, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, and the device profit loss intensifies. In the deep - processing of C3, the demand for alkanes is weak, and the operating rate has decreased [4] - Inventory: It is bullish. Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 184,100 tons (a 3.56% decrease), and the port inventory was 3.1804 million tons (a 3.01% decrease). The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate decreased this week, with a slight increase in inventory in Shandong and Central China, and a relatively smooth inventory reduction in East and South China [4] - Basis and Position: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China is 200.40 yuan/ton, in South China is 345.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 173.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 2,300 lots, a decrease of 12,227 lots [4] - Chemical Downstream: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 68.76%, 54.89%, and 45.27% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are - 433 yuan/ton, - 187 yuan/ton, and - 86 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Valuation: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 1.33 (a 10.71% increase), and the PG main - secondary monthly spread is 137 yuan/ton (a 75.64% increase) [4] 3.3 Market Trend Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated upwards, with a fluctuation range of 4,040 - 4,270 yuan/ton. Affected by the bearish pressure of crude oil, the international LPG market also dropped significantly. After the National Day holiday, the disk gap - opened lower and then oscillated at a low level. Due to the increase in domestic supply and weak fundamentals, both spot and futures prices declined, but the futures rebounded in the second half of the week, and the basis weakened [7] 3.4 LPG Futures Price and Spread Overview - The report provides the current values, week - on - week and month - on - month changes, and scores of LPG futures prices, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 is 3,935 yuan, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% [11] 3.5 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of Chinese main refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [13][14] 3.6 Price and Spread Charts - The report includes various price and spread charts, such as CP propane and butane prices, FEI propane and butane prices, MB propane and butane prices, propane - butane spreads, and ratios between propane/butane and WTI/Brent [15][23][27] 3.7 Inventory and Production Data - The report presents data on LPG imports, exports, port inventories, refinery inventories, production, and self - use, as well as charts showing the trends of these data [146][152][168] 3.8 Deep - Processing Profit Data - The report provides data on the deep - processing profits of alkanes and olefins, including PDH to propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE profits, and alkylation oil profits, as well as the operating rates of relevant devices [191][204][210] 3.9 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industry fundamentals and spot - futures research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards [217]