生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Global sugar production is expected to be high, pressuring sugar prices. However, as the sugar - ethanol price difference narrows, ethanol production provides stronger support for raw sugar. The international market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. In the domestic market, supply - demand factors are bearish, but cost - side support is strengthening, and it is also expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Pulp: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices. The downstream demand for pulp may improve, but global shipping data shows high supply, and the supply pressure in the Chinese market may remain high. The macro - sentiment improvement boosts low - valued pulp, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - Offset Paper: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. However, the high production capacity may limit the price rebound. Attention can be paid to inter - month reverse spreads and long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [5]. - Cotton: The external market price of cotton is expected to be under pressure. In the domestic market, the new - season cotton harvest is progressing, and the production increase is basically certain. There are still pressures on the export side, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - Apple: The supply - side bullish factors of apples have been somewhat realized, and the market is in high - level fluctuations. The poor performance of the good - fruit rate provides support for the far - month contracts [7]. - Jujube: The futures price of jujubes rebounded last week. The spot inventory is being depleted, and the price has a seasonal rebound. The current weather is favorable for new - season jujube production [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, recommend going long on the far - month contract; for Jujube 2601, recommend taking profits on long positions at high prices [17]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, recommend temporary observation; for Pulp 2511, recommend shorting within the range; for Offset Paper 2601, recommend shorting on rebounds; for Cotton 2601, recommend shorting at high prices [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2601 | 8625 | - 119 | - 1.36% | | Jujube 2601 | 11420 | 275 | 2.47% | | Sugar 2601 | 5412 | - 84 | - 1.53% | | Pulp 2511 | 4838 | 50 | 1.04% | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4202 | 8 | 0.19% | | Cotton 2601 | 13335 | 10 | 0.08% | [18] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5790 | 0 | - 750 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5550 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14679 | 15 | - 801 | [25] 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, Pulp, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [34][37][38][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation The report provides inter - month spread charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [43][45][47]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8418 | - 20 | - 1300 | | Pulp | 227023 | - 445 | - 176569 | | Cotton | 2653 | - 71 | - 1321 | [48] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Apple Options - Market logic: New - season apple listing performance is below expectations, and far - month contracts have strong support. - Option strategy: Sell far - month put options [49]. 3.6.2 Sugar Options - Market logic: Cost support exists, but the fundamental situation is mainly bearish. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle option strategy [49]. 3.6.3 Cotton Options - Market logic: The concentrated listing of new - season cotton exerts obvious pressure, and the short - term futures price may show a weak trend. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - Weather in Producing Areas: The report provides temperature and precipitation charts for Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [62][63]. - Export Situation: The report provides a chart of monthly apple export volume, but no specific analysis is presented [64][65]. - Inventory Situation: The report provides charts of weekly apple storage inventories in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [66][67]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volumes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis is presented [68][69]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures spread, but no specific analysis is presented [70][71][73][75]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic four - port pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, pulp product weekly production, and monthly import volume of broadleaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis is presented [77][82][83]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper The report provides charts of offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis is presented [84][85]. 3.7.6 Cotton The report provides charts of retail sales and inventory data of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories, import volume, and textile industry - related data, but no specific analysis is presented [86][87][88]