玻璃：宏观预期降温观望等待反转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for glass contracts, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day, the expectations of environmental protection and macro - policies in the glass industry cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. The planned ignition within the month and the rising inventory trend suppressed the spot price. The fundamentals are in a weak state without bright spots, and in the absence of macro - policy expectations, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures weakened significantly, with the weekly line closing as a medium - sized阴线. There were no changes in production lines last week. After the festival, the futures price declined, and the inventory of manufacturers continued to rise. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the actual profit was still at a marginal level. The demand from middle - stream processors and downstream was weak, and the orders of processors did not improve. The supply of soda ash was in excess, and the price was under pressure. Technically, the short - side strength increased, and the moving averages were arranged downward, making left - hand trading difficult [3]. - Operation Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 02 Price Review - Spot Price: As of October 17, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 50) in North China, 1,200 yuan/ton (- 20) in Central China, and 1,310 yuan/ton (- 30) in East China. The prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as the prices of Shahe Great Wall and other manufacturers [9][10]. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan for the week [10]. 03 Basis and Spread - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of October 17, the futures price of soda ash was 1,209 yuan, and the futures price of glass was 1,095 yuan, with a spread of 114 yuan/ton (+ 81) [11]. - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 55 yuan/ton (+ 44). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 136 yuan/ton (- 9) [15]. 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,576 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was - 266 yuan/ton (- 29). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,185 yuan/ton (+ 21), and the gross profit was - 5 yuan/ton (- 71). - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,090 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 19) [18]. 05 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+ 700), and there were 226 production lines in operation. There were also records of production line cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and conversions [20][22]. 06 Inventory - As of October 18, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,427.6 million weight boxes (+ 145.2). The inventories in North China, Central China, East China, and other regions also changed to varying degrees [25]. 07 Deep - Processing - Production and Sales Rate: On October 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 73% (- 26%). - LOW - E Glass: On October 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.7% (- 1.5%). - Order Availability Days: In mid - October, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (- 0.1) [28]. 08 Demand - New Energy - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [40]. 09 Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new - construction area was 45.9487 million square meters (- 20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million square meters (- 29%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 57.4415 million square meters (- 11%). From October 12 to October 16, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.16 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 42%. In August, the real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [47]. 10 Cost - Soda Ash (Price) - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also remained unchanged [49][50][51]. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (- 31). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China 09 was 91 yuan/ton (+ 31) [54]. 11 Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 130 yuan/ton (- 53). The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda - ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+ 33), with a gross profit of - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production method was 1,761 yuan/ton (+ 49) [56][58]. 12 Cost - Soda Ash (Inventory and Warehouse Receipts) - Inventory: Last week, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 40,700 tons), including 940,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons) and 759,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,700 tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 10,773 (+ 3,720). - Production: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 740,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,300 tons), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,200 tons) and 325,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons). The loss was 101,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons) [66][68][70]. 13 Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 395,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,000 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 304,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27% [73].