铜周报20251019：宏观及基本面多空交织，沪铜短期震荡-20251020

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251019: Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Core View - Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Downstream procurement sentiment is dull, and copper spot trading is average [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M spread strengthened on a week - on - week basis [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index was -$40.97/ton, still low [17] - The loss caused by the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine was 45% higher than previously estimated [18] - The refined scrap copper price difference decreased on a week - on - week basis [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [24] - This week, both the electrolytic copper spot inventory and bonded area inventory increased within the week [26] - LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper inventory increased [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded on a week - on - week basis but decreased year - on - year. Enterprises resumed production but were restricted by high copper prices, and consumption was weak [30] - From October 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market decreased by 1% year - on - year [32] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to be slightly reduced [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [34] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [38] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [41] - Powell left the door open for the Fed to cut interest rates, but there are differences within the Fed on the pace of rate cuts [42]