天然橡胶周报：供给端上量预期增强，橡胶维持偏弱表现-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is "oscillating", indicating that in the short - term, it may maintain a weak performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. Factors such as产区 weather improvement expectations may loosen raw material price support, while mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and post - holiday downstream operating rates may rise. However, external macro disturbances are negative [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan has some rainfall disturbances but overall supply is okay with slightly lower raw material purchase prices; Hainan's rainfall affects rubber tapping, and supply increase is slow. In Thailand, the northeast and north have less rainfall, and the price of raw material cup - rubber has dropped significantly; the south has irregular rainfall, and the glue price has stopped falling and rebounded. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and glue supply is normal [3]. - Demand: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points; the semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - Inventory: It is bullish. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 420,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% [3]. - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. After the holiday, the RU - mixed spread has narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot has continued to shrink. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts has also narrowed [3]. - Profit: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has still been in the loss range but has recovered significantly [3]. - Valuation: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still at a medium level [3]. - Commodity Market: It is bearish. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the overall bearish performance of the commodity market [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed variety [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: The supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. As of October 17, the RU main contract closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 620 yuan/ton (- 4.05%); the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,225 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 125 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) [6]. - Spot Market: Spot prices have loosened [9]. - Position on the Futures Board: The position of the RU2601 contract is relatively low, while the total position of NR has increased, and the RU - NR spread has significantly narrowed [16][23][30]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [38]. - Upstream Raw Materials: Raw material prices have declined [49]. - Main Producing Countries' Output: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+ 1.76%) [62]. - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+ 4.25%) [72]. - China's Imports: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+ 19.47%). In September 2025, China imported a total of 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the total import was 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [85][91]. - Mid - Stream Inventory: China's social inventory has significantly decreased. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [101][109]. - Downstream Tire Demand: After the holiday, tire capacity utilization has rebounded. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [110][117]. - Automobiles and Heavy Trucks: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, an 82% increase compared to the same period last year [126][136]. - Tire Exports: From January to August, tire exports were 6.19 million tons (+ 5.1%) [137]. - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the delivery profit of full - latex is in a loss [147].