新世纪期货交易提示-20251020

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod): Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level operation [4] - Silver: High - level operation [4] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile with a bearish bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile with a slightly bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7][9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Volatile with a bearish bias [9] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, but short - term price support exists due to potential macro - sentiment improvement. The market should closely monitor four main lines for potential price re - pricing [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns. The core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue volatile adjustment. The fourth - plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to have limited short - term impact [2]. - The glass market has no significant improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and it is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand repair and capacity policies [2]. - The stock index market has seen a significant decline, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and lower long - positions in stock index futures [4]. - The Treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is suggested to hold long - positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The gold market is expected to operate at a high level, with its pricing mechanism shifting and influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound, with stable spot prices and cost - side support [6]. - The pulp market is expected to be at the bottom, with cost support weakening and demand improvement yet to be verified [6]. - The offset paper market is expected to be volatile, with stable supply and potential demand improvement [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [6]. - The meal market is expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with sufficient supply and fluctuating demand [7]. - The rubber market is expected to be in wide - range volatility, affected by weather, production, and demand factors [7]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is hard to reverse. Trade friction may cause price drops, but short - term support exists due to macro - factors. Four main lines should be monitored [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Macro - policy expectations are high, and supply concerns have emerged after a coal mine accident. The core problem is the low profit of steel mills [2]. - Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod): Supply pressure is relatively large, and demand recovery in October needs attention. The market is expected to continue volatile adjustment [2]. - Glass: The short - term supply - demand pattern is not improved, with inventory accumulation. It is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to policies [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to glass, it is expected to be adjusted, and the marginal improvement in the peak season should be noted [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market has declined significantly. It is recommended to reduce risk and lower long - positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The market shows a slight upward trend, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to operate at high levels, influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, with cost support. It is expected to be range - bound [6]. - Pulp: Cost support weakens, and demand improvement is yet to be verified. It is expected to be at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand may improve. It is expected to be volatile [6]. - Oils and fats: They are expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by inventory, production, and demand [6]. - Meals: They are expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, and demand may decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, and demand is weak in the short - term. It is expected to be in wide - range volatility [7]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: They are affected by oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9]