中辉能化观点-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish view on the energy and chemical industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The core drivers in the current market are the supply surplus during the off - season, accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, and geopolitical easing, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [8] - For various energy and chemical products, most are facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and inventory issues, resulting in a generally bearish or cautiously bearish outlook [1][2][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical easing, supply surplus, and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1][8] - Logic: OPEC + plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. US inventories are rising during the consumption off - season. The IEA predicts higher supply growth and lower demand growth in 2025 - 2026 [1][9] - Strategy: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC at [430 - 440] [10] LPG - Core Viewpoint: Bearish. Cost - end oil price drag, rising transportation cost expectations, and weakening downstream demand [1][13] - Logic: Cost - end oil prices are weakening. China's counter - measures may increase transportation costs. Supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream chemical开工率 is declining [1][13] - Strategy: Lightly short. Focus on the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14] L - Core Viewpoint: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and supply remains loose [1][18] - Logic: New装置s are coming into operation, and the supply pattern remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking motivation is insufficient [18] - Strategy: The industry should hedge at high prices. The market maintains a bearish trend, focusing on the range of L at [6800 - 7000] [18] PP - Core Viewpoint: Bearish consolidation. Rising warehouse receipts and weak cost - end oil prices [1][23] - Logic: Warehouse receipts are increasing, and the post - holiday inventory reduction is slow. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and there is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [23] - Strategy: The industry should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP at [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC - Core Viewpoint: Bearish rebound. Short - term rebound following coal prices, but supply - demand imbalance persists [1][27] - Logic: Short - term device maintenance leads to slight inventory reduction, but new产能 is being released, and demand faces uncertainties such as anti - dumping taxes [27] - Strategy: Lightly participate in short - term rebounds. Focus on the range of V at [4600 - 4800] [27] PX - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Cost - end pressure and potential supply - demand improvement [1][28] - Logic: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels [28] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of PX at [6310 - 6410] [29] PTA - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Inventory accumulation pressure and limited upward drivers [2][31] - Logic: Supply - end device maintenance and new装置s are coming into operation. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is inventory accumulation pressure from October to November [31] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of TA at [4420 - 4480] [32] MEG - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Supply - demand looseness and low valuation [2][34] - Logic: Domestic装置s are increasing production, overseas装置s have slight load reduction, and inventory is accumulating. Cost - end oil prices are under pressure [34] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG at [4010 - 4100] [35] Methanol - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and weak fundamentals, but potential long - term opportunities [2][37] - Logic: High inventory suppresses prices. Supply pressure is large due to domestic装置maintenance and high import volume. Demand lacks obvious positive factors [37] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for long - position opportunities on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Weak domestic demand and high inventory, but export support [2][41] - Logic: Supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [41] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the overall market situation of urea [40][42] Natural Gas - Core Viewpoint: Cautiously bearish. Sufficient supply and potential price decline [5] - Logic: US natural gas rig count is increasing, indicating sufficient supply. Although there is some demand support from temperature changes, the overall trend is bearish [5] - Strategy: Not specifically mentioned in the report Asphalt - Core Viewpoint: Bearish. Cost - end pressure and supply - demand imbalance [5] - Logic: Cost - end oil prices are weakening, and the growth rate of asphalt production is higher than that of demand. Demand in the north is affected by weather [5] - Strategy: Hold short positions [5] Glass - Core Viewpoint: Bearish continuation. Weak demand and supply pressure [5] - Logic: There is no short - term macro - policy drive, real estate transaction area is weak, and factory inventory is increasing [5] - Strategy: Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - Core Viewpoint: Bearish continuation. Supply surplus and industrial hedging pressure [5] - Logic: Warehouse receipts are increasing, factory inventory is rising, and supply is loose. Demand is mostly for rigid needs [5] - Strategy: The industry should hedge at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds. Hold long positions on the soda - glass spread [5]