Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 2025 - 10 - 20" [1] - Core View: With the arrival of cooling and snowfall, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly. Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased, while the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4][5][8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1179 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.55%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions showed a strong trend [4] - Coke: Last week, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1676 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions remained stable for the time being [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Coking Coal Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 87.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The daily output of clean coal was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly [4] - The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines and coal washing plants was high, and the downstream transportation was active. The clean coal inventory increased, but the increase was not large [4] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained at a high level, and the high rigid demand for coke supported the demand for coking coal [5] - Affected by factors such as the arrival of snowfall and the expectation of winter storage, the price of coking coal continued to rise. However, due to the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, they were resistant to high - priced coal and mainly purchased on demand [5] - The overall trend of online coking coal auctions was still upward [5] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Coke Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The daily output was 652,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 83,000 tons [7] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The increase in coking coal prices compressed the profits of coking enterprises, and the supply of coke decreased slightly [7] - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, the market trading atmosphere was average, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory fluctuated little [7] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the rigid demand for coke replenishment was good. However, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and the inventory of steel products accumulated, which inhibited the replenishment demand for coke [7] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [8] Group 5: Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average value of 1.43. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [8] Group 6: Inventory Data Coking Coal Inventory - Port inventory was 2.7271 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 222,800 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 9.9737 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 383,100 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 7.8832 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 71,900 tons [9] - Total inventory was 20.584 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,200 tons [9] Coke Inventory - Port inventory was 1.9515 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 6.3944 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons [9] - Total inventory was 8.9188 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,700 tons [9]
焦煤焦炭周报：降温、降雪来袭，双焦期价震荡偏强-20251020
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 05:18