油脂周报（P&Y&OI)-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term view is bullish, while the short - term outlook is for a corrective consolidation. In the fourth quarter, there is still a bullish view on palm oil, mainly due to the resonance of the production reduction season and the bio - diesel end. Rapeseed oil is bearish under the expectation of improved China - Canada relations and is the weakest among the three oils [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. Reasons include high inventory levels in Indian and Malaysian palm oil producing areas, an increase in soybean oil mill crushing volume, and a rebound in domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories [5]. - Demand: Neutral. In the producing areas, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted; the US bio - diesel RVO has not been finalized and may depend on the outcome of trade frictions; the domestic peak season is lackluster, with lower trading volumes of oils compared to the same period [5]. - Inventory: Slightly bearish. The total domestic oil inventory has increased, mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up volumes. Considering the situation of soybean oil mills reducing crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills lacking rapeseed, the subsequent oil inventory is expected to decline overall [5]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. There are continuous frictions before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, increasing uncertainty; the Indonesian government announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year; the US bio - diesel RVO remains uncertain; there is an expectation of reconciliation in China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: Long - term bullish, short - term corrective consolidation. Bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter, bearish on rapeseed oil [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on far - month oils and short on meals. Pay attention to risks such as crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. 3.3 Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: It shows precipitation and temperature data for Southeast Asia, including past and future periods [17][19][21]. - Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [30][34]. - Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [35][41]. - Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences: Shows data on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [42][46]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand: Presents data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import profit, and monthly import volume [48][52]. - Weather and US Soybean Production Situation: Includes the temperature and precipitation distribution in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - quality rate, and harvest progress [59][61][67]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Displays data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, Brazilian soybean monthly export volume, and CNF premium [72][77]. - China's Soybean and Oil - Related Data: Presents data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and inventory [87]. - Canadian and European Rapeseed - Related Data: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, and Canadian soil moisture [88][98]. - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situations: Displays data on rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed oil export volume, import crushing profit, domestic expected rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil arrival volume [100][102]. - China's Rapeseed - Related Data: Presents data on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory [107][110].