长江期货聚烯烃周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins have weak price support and are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6800 support level, and the PP main contract is also expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - The cost of oil - based olefins production profit has recovered, while the profit of coal - based olefins production has declined. There is an expectation of increased supply, maintaining supply pressure. The recovery of PE agricultural film production is good, but overall order follow - up is limited, downstream restocking is insufficient, and there is short - term inventory accumulation pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,874 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. The average price of LDPE was 9,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%, the average price of HDPE was 7,762.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,477.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%. The LLDPE South China basis was 603.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.64%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: The 1 - 5 month spread on October 17 was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton (+ 34), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 57 yuan/ton (- 30) [15]. - Spot Price: The prices of various PE products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [16][17]. - Cost: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [19][61]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week [23]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 81.76%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 650,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.05%. The weekly maintenance loss was 106,800 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons from last week [28]. - 2025 Production Plan: Many companies have completed or are planning to start production, with a total planned production capacity of 6.13 million tons [31]. - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [32]. - Demand: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 42.89%, an increase of 3.28% from last week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 52.19%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the PE pipe operating rate was 32.00%, a decrease of 0.67% from last week [34]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level. The difference between low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 2.2%, with a difference of 4.5% from the annual average level [38]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic plastic inventory was 545,600 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [40]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of October 17, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,685 lots, a decrease of 22 lots from last week [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 171 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [50]. - Basis and Month - spread: On October 17, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,790 yuan/ton (- 1.26%). The PP basis was 239 yuan/ton (+ 84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton (- 12) [54]. - Cost: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [61]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 278.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 373.97 yuan/ton from last weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was 3.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 248.35 yuan/ton from last weekend [65]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.22%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 801,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 69,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% [70]. - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [74]. - Demand: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 51.85% (+ 0.09). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.26% (unchanged), the BOPP operating rate was 61.19% (+ 0.48%), the injection molding operating rate was 58.75% (+ 0.13%), and the pipe operating rate was 36.60% (- 0.33%) [76]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $558.29 per ton, a decrease of $20.57 per ton from last week. The export profit was - $23.04 per ton, a decrease of $11.95 per ton from last week [81]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 678,700 tons (- 0.40%); the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increased by 6.09% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 1.16% month - on - month [85]. - Warehouse Receipts: On October 17, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,313 lots, an increase of 535 lots from last week [90].