Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 05:17Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices continued to decline last week due to factors such as supply surplus, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. However, there was a slight rebound at the end of the week [3]. - Market expectations for the Ukraine peace agreement and the US - China trade attitude influenced the short - term fluctuations of oil prices. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley believes that if Petro - Logistics' higher estimate of OPEC production is more accurate, it will change the market's understanding of OPEC's capacity, demand, and re - balancing path. The oil market may re - balance in the second half of 2027, with Brent crude oil expected to rise to $65 per barrel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price Movement: New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $57.25 per barrel, down 1.02% for the week; London Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.16 per barrel, down 1.50% for the week; China's Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 437.7 yuan per barrel, down 5.24% for the week [3]. - Supply Situation: The IEA reported a larger - than - expected supply surplus in the global crude oil market, and OPEC's total crude oil production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in oil prices, but the uncertainty of the Ukraine peace agreement and the US - China trade attitude had an impact on the short - term oil price trend [3]. - Fund Data: The speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 37,794 contracts to 109,606 contracts in the week of October 14. The speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts in the week of September 23 [3]. 3.2 Related News - OPEC Production Estimate Discrepancy: There is a significant difference in the estimates of OPEC crude oil production among different data providers. If Petro - Logistics' estimate is more accurate, it will have a major impact on the market's understanding of OPEC's production and market re - balancing [4]. - India's Russian Oil Import: A US White House official said that India had halved its purchase of Russian oil, but Indian sources said no immediate cuts were seen, and any cuts might be reflected in December or January import data [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical and Trade Factors: Geopolitical concerns have weakened, and the US - China trade attitude has slightly softened. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 430 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [6][7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week, with the British Brent Dtd down 6.68%, WTI down 4.87%, etc. [10]. - Inventory Data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time, with some periods of increase and decrease [12][13]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC and ICE Data: The net long positions of CFTC funds and ICE funds in crude oil futures showed different changes over different time periods, reflecting the market's attitude towards the future trend of crude oil prices [19][20]