Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations, but the current domestic crushing profit is poor, which is expected to affect the pace of vessel purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Basis - On October 17th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 132, up 19; in Tianjin it was 112, up 19; in Rizhao it was 82; in Zhangjiagang it was 52, up 39; in Dongguan it was 32; in Zhanjiang it was 82, up 29; in Fangcheng it was 72, up 29. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, and MJ - 5 was 155, down 10 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 562, up 19. The RM1 - 5 spread was 30, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 410 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0897, down 38.00. The futures crushing profit was 297 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has begun, and as of October 14th, the planting rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8][9] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are apparently light, but the pick - up is good [9]
蛋白数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-20 05:20