原油周报（SC）：地缘局势降温，油价维持弱势-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is that the oil price will show a weak and volatile performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical situation cools down, and supply - demand shows a bearish trend. Although the US attitude towards tariffs on China eases, short - term oil prices will still show a weak and volatile performance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,585 million barrels per day, up 267 million barrels per day from 2024. In September 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries also saw production increases [3] - Demand (Medium - Long Term): Different institutions have different forecasts. EIA raises the demand forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast. In 2025, the demand forecast ranges from 10,399 million barrels per day (EIA) to 10,514 million barrels per day (OPEC) [3] - Inventory (Short Term): US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels in the week ending October 10, 2025. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. There were also changes in refined oil inventories [3] - Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term): On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in November. The IEA points out that the crude oil market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply in the next few months [3] - Geopolitical (Short Term): The US and Russia plan to hold a new round of summit on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the UK has imposed severe sanctions on Russia's oil - related fields [3] - Macro - finance (Short Term): The Fed may stop quantitative tightening in the next few months, and China and the US agree to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [3] - Investment View: Short - term oil prices will show a weak and volatile performance [3] - Trading Strategy: Both arbitrage and unilateral trading are advised to wait and see [3] 2. Main Weekly Data Change Review - Price Changes: SC crude oil decreased by 6.34% to 432.6 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.21% to 61.34 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.70% to 57.25 dollars/barrel [5] - Inventory Changes: There were changes in various inventories such as US + Europe + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and crude oil port inventories [5] - Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes: There were significant decreases in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU high - sulfur fuel oil and LU low - sulfur fuel oil [5] 3. Futures Market Data - Market Review: Geopolitical situation cools down, and oil prices maintain a weak trend. As of October 17, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined [9] - Month - spread and Internal - External Spread: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads continued to narrow [10] - Forward Curve: The forward premium structure was strengthened [23] - Cracking Spread: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][35] 4. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels per day [55][70] - Inventory: US commercial inventory increased, Cushing inventory decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [81][90] - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand and refinery operating rate decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly, and refinery profits also showed a downward trend [107][116][125] - Macro - finance: The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index rebounded [138] - CFTC Position: The speculative net short position of WTI crude oil decreased [146]