正信期货聚酯周报20251020：PTA：弱预期主导，PTA偏弱震荡，MEG：在“积弱难返”中寻求底部支撑-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to experience weak oscillations in the short - term due to macro - level disturbances, a slight increase in supply, mediocre demand during the traditional peak season, and a pessimistic long - term supply - demand outlook. The industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high prices and pay attention to unplanned production cuts or halts [6]. - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is likely to maintain a weak pattern in the short - term as there is a strong expectation of a weakening in supply - demand balance and inventory is accumulating at the main ports [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: International oil prices declined due to the International Energy Agency's warning of long - term supply surplus and trade disputes initiated by the US. PX prices dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil because of weak cost support and a low PX - naphtha spread. As of October 17, the Asian PX closing price was $783.17/ton CFR China, down $15/ton or 1.88% from October 10 [15]. - PX Capacity Utilization: The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 0.81% decrease from the previous week. Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month, and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued to be under maintenance, with a planned restart in early November [20]. - PX - Naphtha Spread: As of October 17, the PX - naphtha spread reached $246.2/ton, up $24.75/ton from October 10. The spread continued to recover due to low processing fees, low production willingness of enterprises, and a short - term shortage of spot in November [23]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: PTA prices oscillated weakly. Although the supply was tightened by a planned production cut of a major producer in the Northeast, the price was dragged down by lower international oil prices due to tariff disputes and weak long - term industry expectations. As of October 17, the PTA spot price was 4340 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 83 [26]. - PTA Capacity Utilization: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.56%, a 2.28% decrease from the previous week. Hengli Petrochemical carried out a planned production cut, while Yisheng New Materials increased its load during the week. In October, there are maintenance plans for Ineos and Hengli, and the restart time of Yisheng Dahua and Hainan is uncertain, so the monthly PTA output may increase significantly [29]. - PTA Processing Fees: PTA processing fees were under pressure as the international oil prices continued to decline due to the ongoing tariff disputes, and there was a lack of positive support in the industrial chain. Next week, with the planned restart of maintenance devices and little change in the polyester sector, the destocking rate in the balance sheet will narrow, and PTA processing fees may continue to be under pressure [31]. - PTA Supply - Demand Balance: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of maintenance devices, and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Trend: Ethylene glycol prices declined weakly under the double pressure of cost and supply - demand. Affected by the expectation of increased supply and the decline of international oil prices, upstream raw materials were in a downward trend. Although there was a rebound on Thursday due to the general rise of commodities, it continued to be weak on Friday due to the drag of crude oil. As of October 17, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4096 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4230 yuan/ton [40]. - MEG Capacity Utilization: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.05%, a 0.37% decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 68.93%, a 1.07% decrease, while the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.24%, a 0.75% increase. In October, the inventory accumulation at ports is limited due to cautious import expectations, but there is an obvious expectation of increased domestic production [44]. - MEG Port Inventory: As of October 22, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 893,000 tons. As of October 16, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 493,000 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from October 13 [46]. - MEG Processing Profits: The prices of ethylene glycol were weak, and the processing profits of various processes showed both increases and decreases. As of October 17, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol production was - $108.89/ton, an increase of $17.29/ton from the previous week, while the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production was - 470.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. 4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Device Load: The polyester devices had no clear changes. The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week. Next week, the polyester load is expected to gradually increase as previously commissioned devices and long - shut - down devices restart, and new devices are planned to be commissioned [54]. - Polyester Capacity Utilization Outlook: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a 1.12% increase from the previous month. After successful destocking before the festival, the polyester inventory in October is under little pressure, and the monthly polyester load is expected to remain stable [55]. - Capacity Utilization of Polyester Products: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.06%, a 0.03% decrease from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.16%, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.12%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [60]. - Polyester Product Inventory: Due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the finished - product inventory of polyester factories accumulated slightly during the week [63]. - Polyester Product Cash Flow: The polymerization cost decreased, and the price decline of polyester products was less than that of raw materials, so the cash flow of most models was restored [64]. - Weaving Load: As of October 16, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.06%, unchanged from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.79 days, an increase of 0.50 days from the previous week. In mid - October, the weaving market orders were differentiated, and the order volume increased slightly compared with September, but the overall increase was not significant due to the temperature difference between the north and the south [69]. 5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - Cost: International oil prices declined. PX prices also dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil due to a low PX - naphtha spread [71]. - Supply: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate also declined slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based devices [71]. - Demand: The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained stable. The weaving orders increased slightly but were still affected by temperature differences [71]. - Inventory: PTA is expected to be tight in the near - term but face inventory accumulation in the long - term. The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased [71].