贵金属周报（AU、AG）：中美贸易摩擦缓和，贵金属冲高回落-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices first soared and then declined, but still had significant weekly gains. Factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and loan fraud issues in U.S. regional banks increased market concerns about potential risks in the U.S. credit market, boosting the demand for safe - havens and driving up precious metal prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut also contributed to the price increase. However, the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion and a sharp drop in precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, due to the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions, precious metal prices may need adjustment. But considering the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the expected Fed rate cut in October, prices are expected to move in a volatile range. For silver, the tight physical supply in London needs attention. If the shortage is alleviated, silver prices may face further adjustment risks. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, supported by factors such as the continuous rise of the U.S. federal government debt, expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips after the adjustment in the long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 - Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio: The report presents the price trends of gold and silver through charts, including London spot gold, Shanghai gold futures, London spot silver, and Shanghai silver futures. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios are also shown [5][6][7][8]. - ETFs and CFTC Positions: Charts display the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the holdings of gold SPDR - ETF and silver SLV - ETF. The data shows changes in market sentiment and investment trends [26][27][28][30][31]. - Inventory Data: Information on the inventories of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, SGE, and LBMA is presented, which can reflect the supply and demand situation in the market [32][33][35][37]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 - Major Macroeconomic Indicators: The report tracks indicators such as the U.S. GDP growth rate, manufacturing and service PMI, consumer confidence index, employment data, inflation data, and central bank gold - buying. These indicators can help analyze the macro - economic environment and its impact on precious metal prices [55][56][57][62][68][82]. - U.S. Economic Indicators: The U.S. GDP has strong growth, but the manufacturing and service PMIs have declined. Employment has cooled significantly, inflation shows signs of rising, and consumer confidence has dropped [55][56][57][62][68]. - Eurozone Economic Indicators: The Eurozone GDP has bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI has increased, while the service PMI has declined. Inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK are also presented [77][78][81]. - Central Bank Gold - Buying: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. Global central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, which provides support for the upward movement of the gold price [83][87].