纸浆：下游装置正常排产，预计浆价小幅震荡反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the de - stocking trend of domestic port inventory, but the absolute inventory value remains high. The spot market shows a situation where the price of coniferous pulp is weak and that of broad - leaf pulp is stable. The wood pulp consumption of downstream products such as household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard has slightly increased, but there is still inventory pressure on finished paper and the industry profit is meager. The futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2601 contract will fluctuate and rebound in the range of 5050 - 5280 this week [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: The spot market price of pulp last week was stable for broad - leaf pulp and weak for coniferous pulp. Among them, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); the price of broad - leaf pulp Bird increased by 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%). The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were all flat week - on - week [11][14] - Pulp Futures Review: The pulp futures contract SP2601 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and finally slightly rebounding in a range of more than 150 points last week. It closed at 5122 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton (+ 0.87%), with the weighted trading volume increasing by 1069000 lots and the weighted open interest increasing by 18000 lots [15] - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: The basis discount of pulp futures and spot decreased last week. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 354 yuan/ton compared with last week [19] - Log Futures Review: The log futures contract 2601 showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and finally rebounding last week. It closed at 835.5 yuan/cubic meter, a weekly increase of 7.5 yuan/cubic meter (+ 0.91%), with the weighted trading volume increasing by 499000 lots and the weighted open interest increasing by 18000 lots [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Output: Last week, the pulp output was 529000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4000 tons (+ 0.76%). It is expected that the domestic broad - leaf pulp output will be about 220000 tons and the chemical mechanical pulp output will be about 235000 tons this week [22] - Capacity Utilization Rate of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 85.8%, a week - on - week increase of 3.1%; that of chemical mechanical pulp was 89.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp will decline next week due to maintenance plans [25] - Monthly Pulp Output: In September 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 69000 tons (+ 3.24%); the wood pulp output was 1.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74000 tons (+ 4.07%); the non - wood pulp output was 306000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons (- 1.61%) [27] - Capacity Utilization Rate of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Broad - Leaf Pulp: In September 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp output was 902000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons (+ 1.12%), with the capacity utilization rate at 81.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the broad - leaf pulp output was 988000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64000 tons (+ 6.93%), with the capacity utilization rate at 82.0%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [32] - Monthly Production Profit of Pulp: In September 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 575.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.1 yuan/ton (+ 9.33%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 301.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [35] - Pulp Import Volume: In September 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.9525 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 299600 tons (+ 11.29%) and a year - on - year increase of 272500 tons (+ 10.17%). The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 27.0608 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.42 million tons (+ 5.6%) [36] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Capacity Utilization Rate of Downstream Products: The output of domestic household paper last week was 280800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons (+ 0.21%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The output of offset paper was 203000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13000 tons (+ 6.84%), and the capacity utilization rate was 53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.6%. The output of coated paper was 79000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9000 tons (+ 12.86%), and the capacity utilization rate was 58.3%, a week - on - week increase of 6.6%. The output of white cardboard was 345000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons (+ 0.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 76.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [40][43][46][47] - Gross Profit of Downstream Base Paper: The gross profit of household paper last week was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton (+ 5.33%); the gross profit of white cardboard was 109 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (+ 3.81%). The average cost of offset paper decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton (- 0.13%), and the gross profit was - 249 yuan/ton, a week - on - week reduction of losses by 6 yuan/ton. The average cost of coated paper decreased by 5.6 yuan/ton (- 0.12%), and the gross profit was 188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton (+ 2.73%) [51][54] - Actual Consumption of Domestic Pulp: In September 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp was 3.461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59000 tons (+ 1.75%) and a year - on - year increase of 237000 tons (+ 7.36%) [55] - Spot Price Analysis of Downstream Base Paper: The price of household paper remained stable last week, while the price of coated paper decreased. The price of offset paper remained flat, and the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased slightly [58][62] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: The overall domestic port inventory showed a de - stocking trend, with the total inventory of mainstream ports at 2.074 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3000 tons (- 0.14%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.402 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7000 tons (+ 0.5%); the inventory in Changshu Port was 498000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16000 tons (+ 3.32%); the inventory in Tianjin Port was 78000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3000 tons (- 3.7%) [65][66] - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipt: The current pulp futures warehouse receipt was 230100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3214 tons (- 1.38%); the total warehouse receipt in Shandong was 217500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3110 tons (- 1.48%) [68]