财达期货铜周报：铜价短期高位震荡-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with an upward trend in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased short - term price fluctuations due to mixed macro news [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - After the National Day holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened higher and prices rose. Since the new round of Sino - US trade conflicts fermented, the market's expectation of economic downturn increased, and the copper price was still weak last week, ending the decline and maintaining an oscillating trend at the end of the week [4] Supply and Demand - Mine - end disturbances continue to ferment, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates continues to decline slightly. Codelco raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $325/ton, a record high. The weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 62.5%, a month - on - month increase of 19.06 percentage points, and that of copper cable enterprises was 61.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.38 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to rise to 66.26% this week, a month - on - month increase of 3.76 percentage points. The real estate continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning have dropped significantly. The main support for the later market comes from wire and cable and automobiles, and the peak - season demand remains to be verified [4] Macroeconomics - US Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that the US may extend the suspension of additional tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China delaying the implementation of the rare - earth export control plan, and President Trump is ready to meet with Chinese leaders soon, so there is an expectation of easing Sino - US trade conflicts. The overall expectation of interest - rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased. In September 2025, China's industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [4]