长江期货贵金属周报：避险情绪支撑，价格延续强势-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].