有色金属基础周报：宏观不确定延续，有色金属整体维持震荡-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - 10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - 10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Price Trend: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - Supply and Demand: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Price Trend: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - Supply and Demand: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Price Trend: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - Supply and Demand: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - Price Trend: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - Supply and Demand: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Price Trend: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - Supply and Demand: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - Price Trend: Range - bound decline. - Supply and Demand: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - Price Trend: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - Price Trend: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - Supply and Demand: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - Price Trend: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - Supply and Demand: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].