沥青（BU）：原油持续下挫，沥青缓慢跟跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have been continuously falling, and asphalt prices are slowly following the downward trend. The overall situation in October shows an increase in supply. Although some refineries have shut down, demand has declined due to the rainy season in the north, resulting in the off - peak season for asphalt. The general trend will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Two information companies' tracking data shows that the planned production of local refineries in October is 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although some refineries are in maintenance or intermittent production, overall market supply shows an increasing trend [3] - Demand: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day, domestic asphalt market demand has declined. However, there are still some construction rush expectations in the market. The total shipment this week is 393,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [3] - Inventory: Factory inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Social inventories are decreasing, especially in the north [3] - Cost: After the National Day, crude oil prices have been continuously falling. Multiple factors such as trade tensions, supply warnings, and geopolitical issues have affected the decline of crude oil prices. Currently, Brent crude has fallen to the important support level of $60 [3] - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is also oscillation, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3] Part Two: Price - The report presents charts of the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9][11] Part Two: Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: Charts show the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [14][16] - Basis: Charts show the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, and Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 [18] Part Two: Supply - Scheduled Production Expectation: Charts show the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [22][24][25][28] - Capacity Utilization: Charts show the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][37][38][39][40] - Maintenance Loss: Charts show the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [44] Part Two: Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: A chart shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - Diluted Asphalt: Charts show the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [50][51][52] Part Three: Inventory - Factory Inventory: Charts show the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [56][58][59] - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [61][62] Part Three: Demand - Shipment Volume: Charts show the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [65] - Downstream Operating Rate: Charts show the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 to 2025 [67][68][69][71][73][74]