纸浆周报（SP)：老仓单压力较大，维持11-1反套-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is under negative pressure in terms of supply, demand, and inventory. It is recommended to conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp futures are at an absolute low, with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Suzano raised prices in Asia and Europe in September 2025, and Arauco adjusted its quotes. Although the阔叶浆 outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive periods, the针叶浆 outer - market quotes decreased. South American exports increased in September, and supply is expected to remain loose [3]. - Demand: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp paper products did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, and there was no boost to pulp prices [3]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow downward trend [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: Conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. It is recommended to wait and see as pulp futures are at a low level with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, no recommendation; for arbitrage, conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the removal of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures Market: This week, the pulp fundamentals remained stable, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The old warehouse receipt problem remains unsolved, and the near - month contract is under pressure [6]. - Spot Market: The price of broad - leaf pulp was stable, while the price of softwood pulp declined. Specifically, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 250 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. - Outer - Market Quotes: In September, the price of broad - leaf pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Arauco adjusted its quotes in August and September [18]. - Position: As of October 17, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 394,124 lots, up 0.46% from last week; the position of the main contract was 179,966 lots, up 36.73% from last week [21]. Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamentals Data - Import Volume: In August, the import volume of pulp and wood chips decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, down 7.79%; the softwood pulp import volume was 614,000 tons, down 4.95%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.258 million tons, down 6.88%; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.259 million tons, down 6.11% [4]. - Inventory: Chinese port pulp inventory was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills was stable. As of the end of July, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 47 days, with 50 days for bleached softwood pulp and 45 days for bleached hardwood pulp [32][36]. - Downstream Demand: As of October 17, 2025, among the four major wood - pulp papers, the price of white cardboard increased, while the prices of the other three remained stable. In September 2025, the production volume of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper products remained stable [40][47][54]. - European and American Demand: In September 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory decreased by 3.7 to 26.5, and that of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 4.2 to 26.7. As of August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down month - on - month [72]. Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - Spread: The basis weakened. As of October 17, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen pulp was - 292 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star pulp was 398 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - 1 spread narrowed to - 284 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from last week [80]. - Import Profit: As of October 17, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 162 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 31 yuan/ton, up 3.4 yuan/ton from last week [81].