新能源周报：基本面变动不大，消息引发波动-20251020

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products: - Industrial Silicon: Bearish [8] - Polysilicon: Sideways [9] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [88] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the new energy sector have not changed significantly, but news has triggered market fluctuations. For example, the polysilicon futures price rose due to the news of a capacity storage platform, but the market sentiment may drive the price down after the rumor was confirmed false [9]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so the silicon price may be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are pushed up in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [8][88]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Colored and New Energy Price Monitoring - Price Data: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes of various有色金属 and new energy products. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - Supply: National weekly production is 97,500 tons, a 2.09% increase from the previous week. The production in the northwest region is increasing. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - Demand: The weekly production of polysilicon and silicone has decreased. For example, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: The dominant inventory is 696,100 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week, with a 21.52% increase year - on - year [8]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, remaining the same as last week, and the profit per ton is 132 yuan, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week [8]. - Investment View: Bearish. The supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the silicon price may be weak [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: National weekly production is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from September [9]. - Demand: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.66 GW, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.31 GW, a 3.16% increase from the previous week [9]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 26,350 tons, a 3.78% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 25,830 tons, a 5.77% increase from the previous week [9]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 41,493 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,107 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase from last week [9]. - Macro Factor: On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - Investment View: Sideways. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the price may return to the previous sideways range after the false rumor [9]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from September [88]. - Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month [88]. - Demand: - Lithium Salt Materials: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,200 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 19,000 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week [88]. - New Energy Vehicles: In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.96% increase from the previous month [88]. - Energy Storage: From January to August, the cumulative domestic energy - storage winning bid power was 41.09 GW/111.43 GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase year - on - year [88]. - Inventory: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 132,700 tons, a 1.59% decrease from the previous week. Lithium salt factory inventory is 34,300 tons, a 1.34% decrease from the previous week [88]. - Cost and Profit: The cash production cost of lithium mica - extracted lithium is 75,870 yuan/ton, a 2.49% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5,918 yuan/ton, a 1,397 - yuan increase from last week [88]. - Investment View: Bullish. Strong terminal demand stimulates downstream purchases, leading to inventory reduction. Although production has increased, which may suppress the futures price, the short - term supply - demand mismatch pushes up the price [88].