Guoyuan Securities·2025-10-20 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 2.90% this week, with all constituent stocks showing upward trends, particularly MPS which rose over 10% [1] - The domestic AI chip index fell by 6.1%, influenced by the tense US-China trade relations, with only Cambricon showing a slight increase of less than 1% [1] - Nvidia's mapping index dropped by 8.7% due to US export controls, resulting in a complete loss of market share in China's data-centric GPU market [1] - The server ODM index rose by 1.1%, with significant performance differences among constituent stocks, where Wiwynn increased by over 10% while Wistron fell close to 10% [1] - The storage chip index decreased by 2.1%, reflecting varied stock performance due to short-term supply-demand dynamics [1] - The power semiconductor index declined by 3.2%, and the Guoyuan A-share and Hong Kong fruit chain indices both fell by approximately 10% [1] Market Indices - The overseas chip index rose by 2.90%, with all constituent stocks increasing, including AMD (up 8.5%) and Broadcom (up 7.6%) [10] - The domestic A-share chip index fell by 6.1%, with significant declines in stocks like Tongfu Microelectronics and Hanguang Technology, both dropping over 10% [10] - The Nvidia mapping index saw an 8.7% decline, with related companies experiencing significant stock drops [11] - The server ODM index increased by 1.1%, with Wiwynn showing a notable rise while Wistron faced a nearly 10% drop [11] - The domestic storage chip index decreased by 2.1%, with some stocks like Baiwei Storage and Dongxin Technology showing gains [15] - The domestic power semiconductor index fell by 3.2%, with New Clean Energy rising while others like Huazhong Microelectronics saw declines [16] - The Guoyuan A-share fruit chain index and the Hong Kong fruit chain index both dropped by around 10% [17] Industry Data - Global wearable wristband device shipments in Q2 2025 increased by 13% year-on-year, with Xiaomi leading the market with a 61% growth [2][23] - Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2025 grew by 4% year-on-year, with Samsung maintaining the top position and Apple being the fastest-growing brand among the top five [2][29] - High-end PC panel and OLED laptop panel shipments are expected to grow by approximately 9% in 2025, with OLED laptops projected to see an annual growth rate of 30% starting in 2026 [2][30] Major Events - Micron plans to stop supplying server chips to Chinese data centers, which may benefit competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix while accelerating the replacement process for local Chinese storage chip companies [3][32] - Nvidia's CEO confirmed the company's complete exit from the advanced AI chip market in China, resulting in a drop in market share from 95% to zero [3][35] - Apple is set to launch its first touchscreen MacBook Pro in 2026-2027, featuring the M6 chip and an OLED display [3][36]