Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-20 05:45Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The overall sales of liquor during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to decline by 20%-30%, aligning with pre-festival expectations due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" in May [2] - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, while the mass market is under pressure, with a notable shift towards lower-priced products in certain regions [3] - The market is characterized by "overall pressure with regional differentiation," where high-end and regional leading brands perform better compared to mass-market products [3] - The price of high-end liquor is stabilizing after a decline, with notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing recovery in prices [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the double festival period are under pressure, with a slight recovery in terminal sales observed in September, but overall sales remain constrained [2] - Inventory levels among distributors are high due to sluggish sales, leading to cautious payment collection [2] Regional Analysis - Jiangsu: Stable sales in urban areas, but rural markets are struggling [3] - Henan: Lower-priced products are becoming the main sales drivers due to changing consumer perceptions [3] - Sichuan: Differentiated performance in urban and rural markets, with rural areas showing resilience [3] - Shandong: Sales are influenced by promotional activities, but overall market sentiment is weak [3] Pricing Trends - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing after a decline, with Moutai's price around 1760 yuan [4] - Strong brand power is crucial for performance, with brands like Jiu Gui and Jian Nan Chun showing better resilience [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the upcoming Q3 earnings disclosures, risks may be fully released, and the sector could see a recovery in sentiment [5] - Key investment lines include: 1. High elasticity stocks under policy expectations: Jiu Gui, She De, Shui Jing Fang, Lao Jiao, Hua Zhi [5] 2. Stocks benefiting from consumer recovery: Gu Jing Gong Jiu, Ying Jia, Jin Si Yuan [5] 3. Strong alpha stocks: Moutai, Fen Jiu [5]