长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market has limited short - term bullish factors and is expected to trade in a narrow range. The price of the M2601 contract is likely to rise slightly, but the short - term upward strength is limited. It is recommended to cautiously go long on M2601 in the short term, and spot enterprises can price the 11 - 1 January basis at low points [8]. - The oil market has a mixed fundamental situation, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long - term, it is advisable to take a bullish view on oils. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to specific price ranges [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 18, the East China spot price was 2,870 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 + 0 yuan/ton, with the basis price up 20 yuan/ton. The US soybean price fluctuated around 1,000 cents/bushel, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by cost [8][10]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, with a downward - adjustment expectation for yield. In September, the US soybean planting area was raised to 81.1 million acres, the yield was lowered to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the ending stocks were raised to 300 million bushels. Brazil's sowing progress as of October 16 was 23.2%, higher than 17.83% in the same period last year. China's soybean arrivals in October were around 8.5 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume was over 9 million tons. In November, arrivals are expected to drop to around 8 million tons [8]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with a year - on - year increase of over 7%. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter will increase by over 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons [8]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped to 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The Brazilian and US soybean premium quotes are stable. The calculated domestic soybean meal cost is 2,990 yuan/ton for US Gulf soybeans and 3,160 yuan/ton for Brazilian soybeans [8]. 2. Oils 2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 17, the palm oil 01 contract dropped 130 yuan/ton to 9,308 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract dropped 46 yuan/ton to 8,256 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract dropped 200 yuan/ton to 9,861 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased to varying degrees [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report showed an inventory build - up, which was bearish. In October, the production may continue to increase, but the export data was strong. The inventory build - up in Malaysia in October is expected to be limited, and then it will enter the traditional production - reduction season. In China, the palm oil inventory as of October 10 was 547,600 tons, and the arrivals in October - November are estimated to be 230,000 and 190,000 tons respectively [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The potential China - US summit and high domestic US soybean crushing volume in September boosted the US soybean price, but there are still many bearish factors. In China, the soybean arrivals in September were over 12 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory continued to build up to 1.2651 million tons as of the week of October 10. The supply gap after November has been narrowed [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The visit of the Canadian foreign minister to China led to an expectation of eased China - Canada relations and resumed rapeseed imports, which short - term suppressed the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, there is a supply gap before the large - scale import of Australian and Russian rapeseed oils in November [82].