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哪些政治事件可能影响TACO交易?
IMF·2025-10-20 05:43

Asset Performance - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.02%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.70% to 6664.01[3] - Gold prices increased by 6.30% to $4224.75[3] Political and Economic Factors - US-China trade tensions remain uncertain, with a new round of negotiations planned for late October[4] - The US government shutdown is expected to last until November, potentially causing a GDP loss of $15 billion per week[11] - The US fiscal deficit for FY2025 is projected to decrease to 5.9%, aided by tariff revenues of $195 billion, a 153% increase from FY2024[13][18] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a resurgence of recession trades due to ongoing US-China tensions and the government shutdown[5][15] - Japan's political instability could impact global markets, particularly affecting TACO trades[14] Key Economic Indicators - Eurozone exports fell by 4.7% year-on-year in August, while imports decreased by 3.8%[22] - Japan's industrial production index was revised down to -1.5% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown[26]