申银万国期货首席点评：承前启后，迎接“十五五”

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - Stock Index: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - International News: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - Domestic News: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - Industry News: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - Treasury Bonds: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - Methanol: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - Rubber: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - Polyolefins: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - Metals - Precious Metals: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - Copper: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - Zinc: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - Iron Ore: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - Steel: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - Oils and Fats: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - Cotton: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].