20251020申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251020

Group 1: Report's Overall Information - Report Name: 20251020 Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Copper may be on the strong side as weekend night - session copper prices rose. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power grid investment has positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the China - US trade confrontation. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc will follow the copper price trend. Weekend night - session zinc prices rose. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but it will follow the copper price trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price: The previous domestic futures closing price was 84,390 yuan/ton, and the basis was 45 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,607 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 16.83 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 137,450 tons, with a daily decrease of 900 tons [2]. Zinc - Price: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,815 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,943 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 136.85 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 38,300 tons, with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,885 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,779 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 12.88 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 495,325 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,650 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,160 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1,260 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,110 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 202.14 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 250,344 tons, with a daily increase of 3,588 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 215 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,972 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 41.85 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 252,000 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,775 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 280,750 yuan/ton, and the basis was 510 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,030 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 142.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,575 tons, with no daily change [2].