格林大华期货早盘提示：原木-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector is "Slightly Bearish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable, but the supply is expected to increase due to holiday factors, and the demand is differentiated. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but attention should be paid to the volatility pressure brought by the hedging orders when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The price of log futures has corrected. The closing price of the main 2601 contract is 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from yesterday and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs is 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from last week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from last week [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The domestic log market has a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. Affected by holiday factors, the arrival volume is expected to increase to 550,500 cubic meters, with obvious concentrated arrival characteristics [1] - The demand side is differentiated. The average daily shipment volume in Shandong has slightly declined, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has decreased due to sufficient pre - holiday restocking. The current inventory in Jiangsu can maintain a 15 - 20 - day production cycle [1] - In the week of September 26, the inventory of softwood logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters, including a 40,000 - cubic - meter decrease in radiata pine and a 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease in North American timber. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 69,700 cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 8,000 cubic meters [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]