东欧地缘恐再度降温，油价偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The risk premium brought by geopolitical conflicts on the supply side is limited, and speculative funds are continuously withdrawing from long positions in crude oil. On the demand side, it is suppressed by weak refined oil consumption and refinery maintenance, and the deepening of the near - month discount of SC confirms the spot pressure. In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical risk premium and the results of the OPEC+ meeting in November and the winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Changes in Crude Oil Futures Market Data - On October 17, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 435 yuan/barrel, down 8.8 yuan (a decline of 1.98%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable, closing at 56.95 dollars/barrel and 61.02 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to 0.02 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed to 4.09 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.07 dollars/barrel. The near - month discount of SC deepened, and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 3 widened to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.1.2 Positions and Trading Volume - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 37,794 lots to 109,606 lots, and diesel net long positions were cut by 26,325 lots. Domestic SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and gas processing plants, as well as the destruction of the Crimean oil depot, may weaken Russia's crude oil export and refined oil supply capabilities. There is no new development in OPEC+ production policy, but the sharp reduction in Brent speculative net long positions shows that the market's trust in OPEC+ to maintain production cuts has declined [4]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The significant reduction in diesel speculative long positions and the high level of domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts reflect weak global industrial activities and shipping fuel demand. The expansion of the near - month discount of SC may be related to the weakening of immediate procurement demand due to seasonal maintenance of domestic refineries. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan was not mentioned, and there is no sign of recovery in EIA apparent demand [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.211 million barrels, indicating that the pressure on domestic delivery storage capacity has not been relieved. The decrease in low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts may suggest a marginal improvement in ship fuel demand in the Asia - Pacific region, but the absolute value is still at a low level. OECD commercial crude oil inventories are affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the overall inventory reduction speed may be lower than expected [6]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and the SC main contract may oscillate in the range of 435 - 445 yuan. Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations and global economic slowdown pressure will still suppress the upside space of oil prices. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the OPEC+ meeting in November will extend production cuts and the realization of winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.4.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.98%, WTI increased by 0.53%, and Brent increased by 0.52%. Spot prices of most crude oil types decreased. Spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI narrowed. Other assets such as the US dollar index, S&P 500, and DAX index also had corresponding changes. US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.84%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 7.25% [10]. 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU decreased, while NYMEX fuel oil increased. Most spot and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil decreased or remained unchanged. The Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.89% [11]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.5.1 Supply - On October 19, the Ukrainian military attacked a refinery in Russia's Samara region and a gas processing plant in the Orenburg region [12]. 3.5.2 Demand - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil and diesel speculators significantly reduced their net long positions [14]. 3.5.3 Inventory - On October 17, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,211,000 barrels, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons to 4,960 tons, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 44,960 tons [15]. 3.5.4 Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts had corresponding fluctuations. The Ukrainian special operations forces claimed to have attacked the Russian oil depot in Crimea [16]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the production of US crude oil, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, the operating rate of US refineries, and the inventory of US commercial crude oil, etc. [17][19][24]