Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-20 06:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a significant increase in pricing, with September showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in business volume and a 7% increase in revenue [3]. - The report highlights that the average single ticket revenue for September was 7.58 yuan per item, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]. - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery due to price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the new phase of price competition in the industry, including the potential for sustained profit recovery and significant dividends, continued competitive dynamics in certain regions, and the possibility of higher-level mergers and acquisitions [3]. Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - In September, major express companies reported the following business volumes: YTO Express at 2.627 billion items (up 13.64%), Shentong Express at 2.187 billion items (up 9.46%), and Yunda at 2.110 billion items (up 3.63%) [3]. - The average single ticket revenue for YTO was 2.21 yuan (up 1.4%), for Shentong was 2.12 yuan (up 4.95%), and for Yunda was 2.02 yuan (up 0.50%) [3]. Price Trends - The report notes a significant month-on-month increase in pricing across the industry, with Yunda showing the largest recovery in single ticket pricing [3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of price increases driven by the reduction of internal competition within the industry [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with a focus on the upcoming quarterly reports and peak season pricing [3]. - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda for their competitive advantages [3]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the transportation sector, detailing their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 [4].