油价承压下，纯苯苯乙烯延续偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is expected to have a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak oil prices and downstream production - cut expectations, the short - term price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of oil prices and geopolitical situations [2]. - The benzene - ethylene market generally continues to operate weakly. The supply - demand expectation is loose, and the short - term price driver remains weak. It is necessary to focus on the implementation rhythm of subsequent maintenance and the impact of macro and geopolitical factors on market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - Price: On October 17, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 1.77% at 6,483 yuan/ton, with a basis of 12 (+77 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 1.38% at 5,566 yuan/ton. The main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 57.0 US dollars/barrel (-0.9 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 61.1 US dollars/barrel (-0.8 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was reported at 5,585 yuan/ton (-100/ton) [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory of benzene - ethylene was 19.7 tons (-0.5 tons), with a month - on - month destocking of 2.7%. The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.0 tons (-0.1 tons), with a month - on - month destocking of 1.1% [2]. - Supply: The production and capacity utilization rate of benzene - ethylene decreased slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene is 33.9 tons (-0.8 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 71.9% (-1.7%) [2]. - Demand: The overall demand of the downstream 3S industry has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 62.5% (+21.8%), the capacity utilization rate of ABS is 73.1% (+0.6%), and the capacity utilization rate of PS is 53.8% (-0.8%) [2]. Views - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand of crude oil is expected to remain weak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and global oil consumption enters the off - season. Coupled with the tightening of US tariff policies, oil prices are under pressure. After the cease - fire agreement in Gaza, geopolitical risks ease. The short - term support level of Brent oil price is around 60 US dollars/barrel. In October, there are limited domestic plant overhauls, and some enterprises still have production plans, so the supply is expected to remain high. The downstream demand support is insufficient, most downstream products are in a loss state, and terminal demand is weak. The East China port may continue the destocking trend, but the low - price hydro - benzene in the north impacts the market, making the spot trading atmosphere in East China light. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is loose, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - Benzene - Ethylene: The benzene - ethylene market continues to operate weakly. On the supply side, some enterprises stop production for maintenance due to profit pressure and inventory backlog, but new plants such as Jilin Petrochemical are about to be put into production, so the overall supply remains high. On the demand side, after the holiday, downstream devices resume work one after another, and the rigid demand drives a phased improvement in transactions, but downstream procurement is cautious, and the overall demand support is limited. Some downstream products are still in the loss range, and the finished product inventory pressure is high. On the cost side, the weakening of crude oil and pure benzene prices weakens the cost support, and the market sentiment is bearish. The domestic benzene - ethylene port inventory is still at a medium - high level, and the destocking rhythm is slow. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of benzene - ethylene is loose, and the short - term price driver is weak [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Price Data: The prices of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene futures and spot, as well as upstream products such as crude oil and naphtha, are provided, including their changes from October 16 to 17, 2025 [5]. - Production and Inventory Data: The production and inventory data of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene from October 10 to 17, 2025 are presented, showing the changes in production and inventory during this period [6]. - Capacity Utilization Data: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene downstream industries (such as benzene - ethylene, caprolactam, etc.) and benzene - ethylene downstream industries (such as EPS, ABS, PS, etc.) from October 10 to 17, 2025 are given, reflecting the changes in the operating conditions of these industries [7]. 3. Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels per day. After the restart of oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, production may further recover in October [8]. - US refineries enter the autumn maintenance period, and the demand for refined oil decreases seasonally. EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.7 million barrels more than expected last week [8]. - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, the tense situation in the Middle East eased, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil continued to decline [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price charts of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene, the price difference chart between benzene - ethylene and pure benzene, the inventory charts of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene, and the capacity utilization rate charts of related industries, with data sources mainly from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][13][16]